1. Ohio State -- Yes, I know. The Buckeyes lost 14 players to the NFL, including five stalwarts on defense, but never understimate the Tressel Factor. Ohio State is 13-1 the last two years in games decided by a TD or less, and that comes down to good coaching. Plus, the Buckeyes get Michigan at home. Call me crazy, but because of the depth of talent, I think this defense -- across the board -- could be better than the last two, and defense will ultimately decide how far OSU goes.
2. Michigan -- Like OSU, the Wolverines are breaking in a new quarterback and a new tailback. Given they saw fit to give Chris Perry the ball 51 times in one game last season suggests the prospects at running back aren't great. At least new QB Matt Gutierrez will have the nation's best receving corps to throw to, led by Braylon Edwards, Steve Breaston and Jason Avant. Edwards, offensive guard David Baas and cornerback Marlin Jackson all bypassed the NFL to return, so Michigan must feel it has something cooking.
3. Purdue -- The Boilermakers are the league's only bona fide contender blessed with a veteran quarterback -- Kyle Orton. Only three defensive starters return from a unit that ranked 13th in the nation, so Orton will be throwing early and often as coach Joe Tiller returns to his gun-slinging ways after playing it more conservatively last season. A big plus is getting Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin at home.
4. Wisconsin -- If marquee tailback Anthony Davis can stay healthy -- a big if given his ankle problems last season -- the Badgers may look like they did at the end of the last century, when they made three Rose Bowl appearances and produced Heisman Trophy running back Ron Dayne. Wisconsin, believe it or not, has won only 13 of its last 32 conference games, but returns all of its starters on both lines, boasts a big-time playmaker in free safety Jim Leonhard and likes the arm strength of new starting quarterback John Stocco.
5. Iowa -- I've learned my lesson. Every year it seems like coach Kirk Ferentz is starting from scratch, every year I relegate them to the second divison and every year they prove me wrong, even tying OSU for the league title in 2002. You can always count on the Hawkeyes being a tough, physical bunch under Ferentz' tutelage and that has compensated for their shortcomings. Gone is uber-offensive tackle Robert Gallery, but Ferentz' specialty is the OL so don't look for much drop off there.
6. Minnesota -- It's the same old story in Gopher land. Running backs Marion Barber III and Laurence Maroney are back after combining for 2,317 yards last season, but what they get done at the offensive end is often given right back by the defense. And the pressure is on new quarterback Bryan Cupito -- a Cincinnati McNicholas product -- to keep defenses from stacking the box against the run.
7. Penn State -- School officials have given 77-year-old coach Joe Paterno a four-year extension, so the only way he's leaving is if he fires himself. A fourth losing season in five years might finally get him to look in the mirror. But 15 returning starters could spare him that introspection. The Lions need senior quarterback Zack Mills to play like he did as a freshman. And they need to define the role of playmaker Michael Robinson, who played quarterback, tailback, flanker and split end last season.
8. Michigan State - Everybody marvels at the turnaround the Spartans made last season under first-year coach John L. Smith, improving from 4-8 to 8-5. But the players may not be there to meet even higher expectations. Gone is Jeff Smoker, who led the Big Ten in passing last season. Even with Smoker, MSU lost four of its last five, its only win in that stretch over Penn State.
9. Northwestern -- Coach Randy Walker is excited about last year's 4-3 finish, but things aren't as good as they appear. The Wildcats ranked last in Division I-A with four TD passes last season and lost their two top receivers to graduation. Starting quarterback Brett Basanez must overcome a sophomore slump and the Cats must prove they can hang with the big boys. Only one of their six victories last season was over a team with a winning record.
10. Illinois -- Things have gotten so desperate in Champaign, coach Ron Turner let his defense draft anybody they wanted from the offense with the exception of tailback E.B. Halsey. Kelvin Hayden, last year's leading receiver, has moved to cornerback as the Illini try to shake things up. They are 6-18 -- 1-11 last season -- since winning an outright Big Ten championship in 2001.
11. Indiana -- The big news out of Bloomington is that the Hoosiers boast a full complement of scholarship players (85) for the first time under third-year coach Gerry DiNardo. Whoopee. Now they've got to work on that schedule. IU plays only five home games.
